1- When you say: Iraq after Daesh (state), it's better than saying Iraq after Daesh, the current effort boils down to the elimination of Daesh entity (the dominant) named (Caliphate State) in Iraq and Syria, while Daesh as a wild Islamist organization and a radical in thought and behavior is staying by installation survival and explanation of such ideology, and is remain by the survival of the political / economic / community conflict on the possession of the state / the nation which is looking for a new foundation after the failure of the traditional state model with Arabs and Muslims, it will stay as long as there are religious sectarian identities conflict and international, regional agendas conflict.
Here we must remember the international effort to counter al-Qaeda organization in 2001, which summarized in the elimination of Taliban / Al-Qaeda State but did not close the file of Al-Qaeda terrorist as a terrorist organization.
Yes, the assumed entity of Daesh(the dominant), will be eliminated, but unfortunately the organization of Daesh is staying by the survival of its production factors. Here we have to point out: that Daesh and similar organizations have more than one reason, and more than an engine to produce more than one place, Daesh in Iraq is not the same Daesh in Libya or Daesh in Europe, if Daesh in Iraq was the result of falls in the construction of Iraq pre-Daesh and employing them to the political and social contradictions and regional support in the axes conflict down to overrun of the Iraqi state and petting to drop it, then Daesh in Europe did not appear because of a state failure nor the political and community contradictions, but was showed by other factors, historical, economic, societal, and other relates to the ideas of coexistence, integration and acceptance of pluralism, and other factors related to the war of religious cultural identities, and the reflection of the Middle Eastern conflict The way to deal with the international crises to this European country or another.
I say: geography of Daesh is internal, regional and international, which is ideological, political, military security geography, and ending them in Iraq means ending the military geographic of Daesh, but the organization of Daesh will not end by the elimination of its geographical state, but will restore its place according to the needs of the political / Community and religious / and sectarian conflict and the conflict of agendas and interests in Iraq regionally and internationally. Each place of Daash –before and after the state-has its own privacy and conditions of confrontation, whether it was security or intellectual, political or societal or cultural educational, and putting the Story of Daesh in one basket is a systematic and strategic mistake that creates a false awareness and a small story to earth geographic without thought, culture, loyalty and interest geography.. Such miniaturization builds reality short of recognizing the depth of the crisis and the ways to address them.
2- As the flatness of the end of Daesh story by limiting it to the earth geography is a simplification of consciousness, considering Daesh as a foreign body and abnormal in our societies and its intellectual, religious and political casks are also flattening of consciousness. Daesh –and many Extreme Islamic organizations before and after it-is a natural product of religious verbal / doctrinal thought which has not seen a real re production fits the spirit of religion and its purposes, and its development (the verbal/ doctrinal thought) with the evolution of the movement of history. Which is the product of the cultural debate isolation that made our societies lose the contemporary identity, it is also the result of the disruption of traditional state building and projects of reproduce its civil institutions, it is also the product of the mutual lumpy stimulus/ clash between religions and sects, and it is also the product of agendas conflict among centers and regional and international strategies in the game of renewable interests.
3- The danger of Daesh lies in its closed ideology is and enable it to the power/ state, its ideology is simple, compact, closed and unable to develop, the power grant it the domination then aggression and brutality.
Daesh is centered about the religion orientation, claim of pure faith and holy monopoly, then necessarily leads to expiation, exclusion, rejecting the violator and get him to comply, there is no common coexistence based on religious, sectarian and cultural pluralism. From here Daesh converged on the collective identity (nation/ group) versus the individual identity of the man, and operates on the difference to create the dispute and deepening it among religions, doctrine and cultures, here it works on the dissonance and the activate of distinction Instincts.
Daesh and similar groups always depend on a set of layouts of tension/ violence /chaos to destabilize the context of societies and systems of countries to re-produced them in accordance with the their standards, policies and objectives, so you see use terrorism/ savagery as tools that deepen the difference/ dispute between religious and ethnic components to destroy the unity of communities and nations and to create religious/ sectarian fronts and package them against other religious/ sectarian fronts . The violence and counter-violence are the best way to create the prejudice against the other, and they are the shortest path to confiscate the mind in favor to the disillusioned emotions aroused by extremist groups.
4- the strength/ weakness of the Daesh organization and the appearance with new/ old names is linked dramatically to the project of national civil state with its comprehensive sense as a political, community, economic, cultural, and educational project. The growth or decay of Daesh, decline or possession of power sources of it is linked to success/ failure / weakness of the state project as a structure, policies and management and is linked to the presence extents of the state existence in the mind and policy of the conflict management with all the terrorist, violent corrupt, and subversive forces who want to swallow the society and the state according to their sayings and political ideology projects or interests. From here we see that Daesh emphasizes the exhaustion of the potential energy in the foundation principles of the state citizenship/ democracy / civil, and works to subtract the historical reluctance that comes from the religious/ cultural ego as a buffer to undermine the principles of the state or emptied them from their content. The more the state project is powerful and Civil took root, the more the extremism ideologies and entities savagery receded, from here we see that Daesh has not been able, for example, to radicalize and expand in the civil societies, or those who have seen a solid structure for the state or those who are not attracted to historical, sectarian memory conflictual.. etc. and remained isolated and castaway despite the real joints that they worked on to swallow the segments of these societies, while Daesh succeed in communities where the State/ authority collapsed, or failed to re-produce themselves, or those that have not experienced a civilian substance in building their societies, or those who attracted by memory, belonging, loyalty and sub- sectarian identity or ethical.. etc.
5-It is absurd to talk about the survival/ demise of Daesh and counterparts in community, but it should be limited to talk here about expatriating Daesh from domination, which means preventing it from exercising the power or reaching it and get it… So as long as Daesh is the product of religious rooting/ verbal idiosyncratic, the product of memory and interpretation, the product of the stratified cultural civilized conflict, and as long as it express the identity or a conflict front or violent balance tool at a large segments of Muslims, and as long as Daesh is part of the regional interests conflict, and even the international represented in wars by commission and mutual employment of violence for political purposes, ... as long as this is a reality, then it's not possible to talk about the demise of Daesh from the community unless there is a substantial radical change for all its production factors, and this is what should happen, yet, it has not happened or initiated.
It's possible according to the nature of our actual reality to thwart Daesh firmly politically and securely, so as not to have the resolution and the ability to control the power from the position of authority. Here, we must look at Daesh as a political project, supported and covered politically religiously and financially, its goal is reproduce the map of countries and geography of communities, which is done by the power / state that strains Daesh and its supporters today to keep them in Iraq, Syria or Libya, and tomorrow, who knows?
Iraq before Daesh… What happened
1-It might be said that Iraq before Daesh: the structure of the political system, a way to manage the country, and outputs of the conflict among the political components of the state, who produced Daesh, this is true, but it's not the whole truth… If we use an accurate description here, the System/ Iraqi administration before 10/6/2014 (the date of Mosul fall) would had enabled Daesh due to the fragility of state-building and the disastrous administration of the state act and the division of the nation state.
There is a meant deception which depicts Daesh as a purely Iraqi sin, which is intended to exonerate the religious intellectual impulse to the political Salafi Islam, and to acquit the producing supporting cans, pro- violent religious movements, which is also an attempt to circulate the constitutive act for more than one country and regional hub that established, coordinated and covered many jihadi Salafi movements that share with Daesh incorporation and thought, approach and target to create such a community/ political phenomenon reproduces communities and states map. It is also an attempt to jump on the repercussions of the way of change in 2003 and the nature of the policy which adopted to rebuild the Iraqi experience through America, which is also an attempt to cover up the internal and regional reaction to the act of dropping the Iraqi state in 2003, and what has been done from dumping the new Iraqi experience in marshes of chaos and blood as part of the conflict with the Americans, or as part of rejection to change or as part of entering as players in the new Iraqi house arrangements and geographic influence of this country or that, .. It is a… etc. of camouflage factors for the purposes of exonerating and fortify the position of the producers, fosters and supporters and manipulators with the phenomenon of political violent/ terrorist Islam which Iraq has been one of its biggest victims.
2- Daesh in Iraq is the result of a long series, which is constant in targets and variable in titles, names, and positioning, that has been using violence, as a political tool to resolve the battle of dropping or taming or even blackmailing the experience change since 2003. It should be recognized that violence has been a political conflict tool to win the state project, and that the security file is a political file with distinction, and that the weapon of violence has arrived with Daesh to the maximum of strength, brutality, and terrorism, but it was dropped as an option to drop the whole Iraqi experience, and only losses that bounced everyone like massacres, abuses, and massive destruction have been left from it.
3-The insiders of the security file know that the overthrow of Mosul was not in 06/10/2014, the night of the overthrow, there were 25 thousand incubators with Daesh and other armed titles, Before the fall, the legitimacy of the state was dropped and the space left opened because of the control of the anti-violent forces in life in Mosel,.. For example, not to limit, Al-Qaeda –the forensic father of Daesh- was settled, pervasive, and controlling life in Mosul, particular in the beginning of 2009 without any real repel. It's enough to mention that sources indicated that the collection imports collection in Mosul reached $ 11 million a month, the owners of the shops, goldsmiths and contractors were paying the tribute publicly, and each medical clinic has to pay $ 500 per month, and there are 3,200 civil electric generators, each one generator owner should pay $ 300 a month, and the same is confirmed for cement operators and petroleum products transportation.. etc., even the Iraqi government formed a committee in the name of (the anti- tribute committee) in 2012 to repel this phenomenon, however, it was terminated so as the tribute continues as an important financial resource for Al – Qaeda. We can only imagine the number of the tribute collectors who were collecting $ 11 million a month!! And we can conclude who was controlling life in the city of Mosul.
Yes, Mosul has not fallen by 400 Daeshi who invaded it suddenly... Mosul has fallen because of the wrong structure of the state, because of the mismanagement, and abuses, laxity, weakness and the betrayal of most of its officials that produced all this lawlessness and cracking, chaos, irresponsibility, and loss... Mosul fell before it has been dropped, and 10/6 /2014 was the official declaration of the fall.فاث6 / been droppin
4-Yes, Iraq before Daesh enabled Daesh (and who behind it) and transformed it from just a terrorist organization to a (state) rules 40% of the Iraqi lands with citizens and wealth, and the reason summarizes in the size of societal/ political contradictions created by the state structure and the disastrous management of the Authority which was used by Daesh and other of armed groups to drop major provinces and roam with criminal actions from killing, exile, displacement and demolition... Internal and regional political religious entities supported and covered the gruesome religious of them as part of the management conflict on the possession of the Iraqi state or carve it according to their interests.
An isolated organization that is contrary to the State cannot overthrow the State unless the state itself was essentially named a state indefinite state that suffers from a fundamental flaw helps its opponents to penetrate it, and this is what existed in Iraq before Daesh, here is the essence of the crisis, it is a crisis of political system structure that could not produce a stand-alone state, able to face the challenges. And here we must not account by the internal and external conspiracies that enabled Daesh to do what it did, there is no state that does not suffer from a political, security, or economic conspiracy, and interpreting the defeat with conspiracy and collapse will not end the story nor explain all what has happened, what has happened is a state collapse in all its manifestations, and nothing has stopped the stream of rapid strange collapse but the religious symbols and popular crowd, which faltered in defense of its existence... And here lies the strangest Ironies, many of the country's leaders and others who have power stated: the state will have fallen without the advisory opinion of the reference and the audiences' gift... The question is: so what is the benefit of the state institutions and the leaders of authorities essentially who have had their share of the defeat and did not have the ability to defend?! Also if there was a state capable of absorbing conspiracies, or a professional political management able to thwart or reduce the size and objectives of conspiracies… If there was a state and the leadership with the stage level, was Daesh able to bring all of this collapse which was close to drop the whole state? The fact that there is a crisis in the state structure and governance is what enabled Daesh of bringing all of this collapse.
5- The crisis of the Iraqi state after the redemption of the former regime in 2003 lies in the harmonic ethnic/ sectarian partisan system on the basis of quotas, which swallowed the state and made it an ethnic/ sectarian partisan provinces competing for power, wealth and sovereignty, this system has produced influence protégées share the state at the level of possession, functions and privileges, which created a divided competitive body to the state and the unity of its existence and structure.
As a political system crisis, it is also a professional management crisis, responsible and elevated ego, corruption and interests. If we had before 2003, a specimen of an authoritarian, discriminatory and monopoly of power and wealth state, state/ authority swallowed the state/ nation on a national basis of a sectarian dictatorship… After 2003 we have produced the races and denominations ingested partisan state, a state which is suffering from splitting its nation by balancing ethnic sectarian ingredients theory, a state that where the authorities are classified (not shared) under the pretext of the partnership, a state of statelets projects masked on the basis of race, caste and ethnicity in loyalty, interest, strength and aspiration sovereign!!.
On 04/09/2003 Iraq came out of the authority of the ethnic / sectarian central unjust adventure umbrella, it went out under the State of the ethnic / sectarian party cantons umbrella where authorities and wealth dispute on the land of quota system, corruption and gulping !! Here is the crises of crisis, it's political system crisis divided on itself suffers from a self-bumpers prevent its unity as a vital, which is a system crisis its policies and politicians cannot unite its nation, it's a responsible management crisis aware of the functions and does its responsibilities with professionalism, efficiency and high patriotism... Thus, the structure of the system and the equation of government and the leaders of the institutions are what created the conditions to pounce on the state and thwart its project and make it a flimsy, crumbling in front of the simplest political, economic and security challenges, and such a structure, policy, and leadership presented Iraq on a plate to terrorism, crime and disorder groups, and made it an opened field for massacres, violations, captivity, and demolition.
Iraq after the state of Daesh
Definitely Iraq after the state of Daesh will not be the same before Daesh, Daesh has created a political, societal, security, Iraqi complicated reality, and deepened the sectarian national differences and prejudices, and produced five million displaced people and hundreds of thousands of victims, between capturing, captivity, and murder, and has created a barrage of feuds and mutual animosities, a large desolation in the cities structure, public services and the memory of national history, it also created a dangerous equate in the Iraq- Syria file, and made Iraq the center of attraction for terrorist movements, it led to a terribly clash in the interests of regional and international feuding, who are fighting without the blood and not on their land !! This actually threatened and will threaten the country's unity and cohesion of the state community, the file of Daesh (state) has not closed yet so shouts of provinces division or the entire state loudly raised, and before defeating Daesh totally militarily, loud calls have raised for the adoption of the undisciplined federal or joining to the regional strategic influence to that State or calling soft guardianship of that State... Iraq beyond the state of Daesh is in danger unless the lesson will be assimilated by all crisis parties and the forces involved in the clash.
2-slowly Daesh will be falter as a (state), which is a mechanism to the extinction with the resolution of the battle of Mosul. But the noticeable is the size of complexity that precedes the battle chapter of Mosul, which is what we have not seen in all the liberation battles of the cities, districts, and townships of Iraq, here we discover through the struggle over the battle of Mosul, the size of the conflict in and around Iraq, and discover the expands ranges that required to pay for it... How else can we explain the attempts to make the battle of Mosul regional? How do we explain that the conflict centre of today is concluded to the agreement issue on the city administration even before the liberation?! And the need to agree on the geographical map of the components in order to avoid crises of the post-liberation?! Doesn't this city have a clear geography? Hasn't this city participated in three major elections? Doesn't it have a representative council and a constitutional and legal statue that must be managed, as the rest of the cities of Iraq, so how do we explain all this ado about the future of Mosul? Here we discover that there is a political project began pre Daesh and used Daesh and it's intended to be ended (through Mosul) by worthily new geo-political/ societal and new soft guardianship.
3-The stage after State of Daesh is a period of resolving the state choices, the state structure and government equations are no longer able to deal with entitlements of the stage after state of Daesh and what it has created of contradictions and massive interventions internally, regionally and internationally, and any establishment of an option or predominance will slowly determine the future of the Iraqi state and its legitimacy will be accepted.
There are visions, projects, internal, regional and international wills conflict compete to draw paths after the overthrow of Daesh (state)... They are serious and aspiring functioning to enable several options, starting with the option of cloning the Syrian fragmented model between the regime and hundreds of armed movements detent for the land and supported regionally and internationally, and there is work for the option of reinstallation population geographical on the basis of padded sovereign division, and there is a work for the option of imposing a soft guardianships on community components (ethnic, religious and sectarianism) and its geography to be attached to the strategic influence of this or that state.
4- In Iraq, there is a political split on the visibility and project level at the Iraqi political forces that are responsible for the actions of the state, and there are large gaps at the level of solidarity of the ethnic, religious, and sectarian components of the state, there are equates with spaces and international and regional agendas that make Iraq part of a bigger game, and with such a reality, it's not possible to guarantee the state bet earning for the post-state of Daesh stage.
5-There are Iraqi paths to face Daesh as an organization and a state, a military path, which is recovering and winning, and a security path which is ranging in place, a retrograded political path, a community path that is divided, afraid and worried, and a cultural informative educational minor path etc. And in order to learn the lesson and deal with a high responsibility with the stage after the state of Daesh, we need to integrate all the paths within a holistic vision that puts a clear determined roadmap and to win the bet of the state, and this is what we call the national equalization.
The National Equalization
1-What shall we do, and from where do we start in order to avoid or minimize the effects of the difficult choices and the disastrous alternatives that Iraq faces in the stage after the state of Daesh? This is the most important question, it's not possible to receive the post-State of Daesh stage with the non-alternative and non-path and without possible realistic and promising options.
If we take into consideration the nature of the complex and fragmented reality and the lack of alternatives and the disaster size and the ferocity of the challenges. Then the national equalization is the best to rebuild the state and calm its controversial files that created this crumbling structure to the state. The equalization although it's complex, but it is not impossible, and it is the best, and all other alternatives as division or reproduce the reality of the pre-state of Daesh stage or going to the mini-states that are competing on wealth, power, and ground.. etc., all these options are considered catastrophic and unpredictable.
2-The forces that own the act of the state are responsible today for the production of acceptable, realistic, and possible solution. It may be argued, it's not possible to realize the solution of those who caused the crisis, it's true, but are there any available, , realistic, and possible alternatives, adopted by the state to get out of the potential collapse due to the challenges? Here is the question, and what is possible today and in accordance with the reality requirements is mobilizing the possible solutions from the womb of this fact in order to avoid the coming difficult and disastrous choices. Basing on this, and in order to employ all the circumstances, facts, and fears the intensified move has been done to produce a comprehensive national equalization, hoped to be fair and acceptable to all.
3-i do not want to paint a rosy picture, but there is an unspoken effort, active and designed, it has launched since months by an integrated team that was employed and benefited from the accumulated work for the various official and non-official fields and by the unremitting participation of UNAMI team to start a plan of five stages begins with the vision and representation resolve stage, and ends by a comprehensive negotiated operator for all the controversial files down to the adoption of a comprehensive satisfactory national equalization to all parties.
4-The equalization, deals on considering reconciliation as a structural issue related to the reproduction of the state according to integrated political contract under the roof of the Constitution to resolve all the contentious files which relate to the three state issues: land, power, wealth. And there is no turning around to premature, satisficing, extortionate, adventure processors, but what is required, is comprehensive, fair, and constituent solutions capable draw paths solution according to a road map and within mutual commitments and specific time limits and internationalism guarantees.
5- The proposed plan is based on the foundations of: the comprehensive equalization and not on unilateral concession, and painful concessions from all parties, and to the principle of no winner and no loser. Also, the targeted equalization is not a start from zero line, but it depends on general principles save the fundamental constants of the state and its institutions and mechanisms of repairing it and the integration of its functions and work.
6- Work is underway, and there are no proven success guarantees, however, the work is promising and there is progress, and there are no other options that can be employed under this complex and opened at all disastrous choices reality, I say: There is a responsible diagnosis and encouraging interaction to many forces, also there are pressures that must continue and expand to include the elite and the audiences to make the historic equalization an irreplaceable necessity. As the national equalization is a rescued option to Iraq, it is also an international urgent need expressed by the international decision-making positions very clearly, and must be employed so as to create the momentum, the world is whining because of the heaviness of immigration, terrorism, and armed conflict files, which have been reflecting on its security, economy and the State pattern. And all of these data must be employed to adopt historic equalizations open serious and new horizon for our peoples and the world.
The stage after the state of Daesh is the stage of the historic national equalization, which is our mission, otherwise there are no guarantees to prohibit and no bumpers to prevent the collapse.